Hunter Muller Predicts: Strong Rebound of Stock Market Shows Difficulty of Foretelling the Future in Uncertain Times

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I am an eternal optimist, and I generally ignore dire predictions of doom and gloom. That said, when  Sequoia Capital issued its widely read “Black Swan” memo in March, counseling firms to trim spending, reduce headcount and prepare for a potentially extended economic downturn, I was momentarily taken aback. Fortunately, my natural inclination to reject dismal prophecies was validated. Today, Sequoia and other investors are reaping the benefits of an uneven economic rebound that was unforeseen by many Wall Street analysts. Even as the pandemic shut down large segments of the economy, other segments surged well beyond expectations.

“The stock market roared back, and businesses lined up to go public, including several of Sequoia’s own. Two of the most valuable companies in the firm’s portfolio, Airbnb Inc. and DoorDash Inc., will hold initial public offerings this week. They’ll cap what will be among the best years in the nearly half-century since Sequoia laid roots,” write Katie Roof and Sarah McBride of Bloomberg.

I have often said and written that now is the absolutely best time to be a technology leader. The performance of tech stocks during the pandemic has clearly demonstrated that we are a driving force in the wider economy.

As noted in last Monday’s HMG Strategy newsletterTesla is now worth more than ToyotaVolkswagenGMFordFiat Chrysler and Peugeot. From my perspective, Tesla is a technology company that also makes cars. Tesla’s meteoric rise reveals the extend to which tech is now dominating and influencing traditional markets in the 21st century.

Roughly 2,800 years ago, the Greek poet Hesiod offered some great advice: “Observe due measure; moderation is best in all things.” I believe we could all benefit from following his sage wisdom. And as a 20th century philosopher and baseball legend Yogi Berra observed, “It ain’t over ‘till it’s over.”

I am confident that we will emerge stronger from this crisis, and that technology leaders will continue playing essential and indispensable roles in shaping a truly global recovery.

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